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Are Bibi and Trump Looking for an Exit Ramp From the War in Iran?
Larry C Johnson
Mar 20
The short answer to the question posed in the title of this article… I don’t know. I do know that some US military personnel, perhaps many, believe that Iran is ready to do this for another 40 years and that the US is never going to “win.”
Whether the US declares victory tomorrow or 18 years from now, the result will be the exact same… The Islamic Republic of Iran will remain in control.
That said, Trump is deploying a MEU (i.e., a 2,200 man force) to the Persian Gulf. MEU stands for Marine Expeditionary Unit. It is a small, self-contained Marine Air-Ground Task Force that can deploy quickly from ships for crisis response, amphibious operations, or limited combat missions. A MEU usually includes about 2,200 Marines and sailors, with an infantry battalion, aircraft, logistics support, and a command element and is designed for short, quick missions and roughly 15 days of self-sustainment.
I am hoping, perhaps foolishly, that this is just a saber rattling gesture by Trump to try to gain some negotiating leverage over Iran because the MEU is too small to pose any kind of serious threat to Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz. If the ships carrying the Marines venture close to the Iranian coast they will likely be destroyed. There is another possibility to consider… The Marines are a feint — i.e., intended to draw Iran’s attention while a US Special Operations Unit will attempt to storm a site in Iran believed to be holding enriched uranium and take control of the material. While I have no doubt that the US can insert a small number of Spec Ops operators into Iran, getting them out safely is a huge challenge. And let’s not forget that the Iranian military, which has the backing of Russian and Chinese intelligence, also will have a vote on the outcome of any attempted raid by US forces.
I think Trump’s best option to end the war with Iran is to resurrect the JCPOA, only call it something else. If Trump agrees to lift sanctions on Iran and withdraws US forces from the Persian Gulf by proclaiming they are no longer needed because Iran has been totally defeated, and Iran agrees to full IAEA inspections of its nuclear facilities, he could declare victory.
I think this is farfetched but I’m trying to come up with something that is in the realm, albeit a distant one, of possibility.
Bib Netanyahu made an interesting comment on Thursday during a televised press conference in Jerusalem. I may be reading too much into this, but I
found the following statement by Bibi quite curious: After 20 days, I can tell you — Iran today has no ability to enrich uranium, and no ability to produce ballistic missiles.
So, if Iran has no ability to enrich uranium or produce ballistic missiles, then it is quite easy to declare, Mission Accomplished, and end the attacks on Iran.
Only one teeny, tiny problem… Iran is not ready to quit.
Iran is pounding of Israel with multiple waves of missiles — the last count is 63 waves — and is just one day away from starting the fourth week of the war. Iran has been hitting Israeli targets across the breadth and length of Israel for 21 days and shows no signs of slackening. While Israeli censors are battling to block the publication of any information or videos that show the true scale and scope of the damage inflicted by Iran’s missiles, information is still trickling out and Iran’s attempt to weaken Israel’s defense and economic infrastructure appears to be succeeding. I see no evidence that Iran is ready to bring an end to the missile offensive. The murders of the Ayatollah and, more recently, Ali Larijani, have stiffened the resolve of Iran to continue attacking Israeli and US targets for the foreseeable future. US hopes for a quick settlement of the war against Iran are fading with each new missile barrage launched from Iranian territory.
One last point, the price of gasoline had gone up a $1 for regular grade in the last three weeks in my neighborhood. The photos at the top of this article were taken a week apart. The price of gas on Friday, February 27 was $2.54. The same thing is happening across the United States — in some areas it has gone up $2 per gallon — and American drivers and truckers are not happy. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz means that gasoline and liquid natural gas will steadily increase in price, and that is creating significant political problems for Trump and the Republicans.
It was only four weeks ago that Trump was singing a different tune… During his State of the Union address on February 24, 2026 (just four days prior to attacking Iran), President Donald Trump highlighted falling gasoline prices as a key economic achievement of his administration. He contrasted them with higher prices under the previous administration and tied them to his “America First” energy policies. He said:
“Gasoline, which reached a peak of over $6 a gallon in some states under my predecessor — it was quite honestly a disaster — is now below $2.30 a gallon in most states, and in some places, $1.99 a gallon. And when I visited the great state of Iowa just a few weeks ago, I even saw $1.85 a gallon for gasoline, the lowest in four years, and falling fast.”
Coupled with his previous campaign promises to not start a new war in the Middle East, the Trump presidency is turning into a dumpster fire of epic proportions — gas prices are soaring and the US is losing the war against Iran.
